Fa20 - FDTNS OF PREDICTIVE MACHN LRNG (51426)
Instructor:
Professor Chandrajit Bajaj
- Lecture Hours -- Mon, Wed- 3:30 -5:00 pm;
- Office hours – Mon, Wed 1:30 pm - 3:00 pm or by appointment
- Zoom (office hours and 1-1: https://utexas.zoom.us/my/cbajaj Links to an external site.
- Contact: bajaj@cs.utexas.edu
NOTE: Most questions should be submitted to Canvas rather than by sending emails to the instructor. Please attempt to make reservation a day before for the office hour to avoid conflicts.
Teaching Assistant
Huancheng Chen
- Office hours: Friday- 3:30 pm - 5:00 pm;
- Contact: huanchengch@utexas.edu
- Zoom: https://utexas.zoom.us/j/96865495024 Links to an external site.
Note: Please attempt to make reservations a day before for the office hours to avoid conflicts.
Course Motivation and Synopsis
This course shall dwell on foundational aspects of predictive machine learning and particularly from time series data through modeling of dynamical systems and optimal control. You will learn foundational intertwined topics of mathematics, computer science and statistics, namely, Bayesian estimation, variational inference, stochastic sampling, compressive measurements, convex and non-convex geometric, manifold optimization, stochastic optimal control, dimensionality reduction, stability, predictions with uncertainty quantification, dynamic programming, Gaussian processes, Markov decision processes, Kalman filtering, optimal transport, normalizing flows, invertible diffeomorphisms, and more ! You will also learn deep reinforcement learning techniques for spatio-spectral-temporal predictions, recommendations, forecasting , counterfactual estimations and robust decision making. Deep networks that are often utilized for these include recurrent, residual and reservoir nets with variations of OdeNets and PdeNets, to create variational auto-encoders, and generative adversarial predictors. Application data stem from a variety of sensing and simulated data (sequence, time-series, multi-hyper-spectral video, molecular dynamics, materials and fluid dynamics), satisfying physical and natural conservation laws. Issues of measurement and computation errors, noise and outliers shall be central to bounding the precision and accuracy of the data analysis. The course is aimed at graduate students. Those in the 5-year master's program students, especially in the CS, CSEM, ECE, STAT and MATH. are welcome. You’ll need mathematics, computer science and statistics at the level of first year graduate, linear algebra, computational geometry, probability and statistics plus introductory functional analysis and numeric optimization (e.g., for CS and ECE students) and combinatorial optimization (e.g.,for CSEM and Math. students).
Course Material.
- [B1] Chandrajit Bajaj (frequently updated) A Mathematical Primer for Computational Data Sciences
- [MRT] Mehryar Mohri, Afshin Rostamizadeh, Ameet Talwalkar Foundations of Machine Learning Links to an external site.
- [SB] Richard Sutton, Andrew Barto , Reinforcement Learning ; An introduction Links to an external site.
- [KM] Kevin Murphy A Probabilistic Perspective Links to an external site.
- [MU] Michael Mitzenmacher, Eli Upfal Probability and Computing (Randomized Algorithms and Probabilistic Analysis) Links to an external site.
- [GBC] Ian Goodfellow, Yoshua Bengio, Aaron Courville Deep Learning Links to an external site.
- [KW] Diederik P. Kingsma and Max Welling An Introduction to Variational Auto Encoders Links to an external site.
- [RW] Carl Rasmussen and Chris Williams. Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning Links to an external site.
- [BHK] Avrim Blum, John Hopcroft and Ravindran Kannan. Foundations of Data Science Links to an external site.
- [JK] Prateek Jain, Purshottam Kar Non-Convex Optimization for Machine Learning .
- [BV-CVX] Stephen Boyd, Lieven Vandenberghe. Convex Optimization
- [MJ] Mathew James Nonlinear Control Systems
TENTATIVE COURSE OUTLINE (in Flux).
Date | Topic | Reading | Assignments |
Wed 08-26-2020 |
1. Predictive Machine Learning I Supervised, Unsupervised, Reinforcement Time-Series Applications [notes] |
[KM] Links to an external site. Chap 1 [MRT] Links to an external site. Chap 1-6 |
|
Mon 08-31-2020 |
2. Predictive Machine Learning II Model Selection, Capacity, Overfitting, Underfitting [notes] Parametric vs Non-Parametric (see readings) Multi-Layer Perceptron Learning (see readings) Projected Gradient Descent [notes] |
[MRT] Links to an external site. Chap 4 [KM] Links to an external site. Chap 1-2 |
[A1] posted |
Wed 09-2-2020 |
3. Predictive Machine Learning III (see readings) SVD, Kernel SVM [notes] Optimization I: Lagrange Multipliers, KKT [notes] Probabilistic Techniques I: Distributions, Inequalities [notes] |
||
Wed 09-09-2020 |
4. Optimization II: Convex and Non-Convex Optimization, Projected gradient descent, Matrix Completion, [notes] Sub-Gradients and Proximal Gradients [notes] Probabilistic Techniques II [notes] Bayesian Concept Learning, MLE, MAP |
[BV-CVX] Chap 1 -5 [KW] Links to an external site. A.2.1 [GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 5 [JK] Chap 2 |
|
Mon 09-14-2020 |
5. Probabilistic Techniques III Sampling, MonteCarlo Sampling [notes] Low Discrepancy Quasi-Monte Carlo Sampling, [slides], Integration Error H-K Inequality [notes] |
[KM] Links to an external site. Chap 3 See Refs in Notes |
[A1] due day |
Wed 09-16-2020 |
6. Probabilistic Techniques IV Transformations Sampling [notes1] [notes2] Normalizing Flow I [notes] |
[SB] Links to an external site. Chap 5 See Refs in Notes in Slides |
[A1] solution [A2] out today |
Mon 09-21-2020 |
7. Sampling Multivariate Gaussians in High Dimensions, Separating Mixture of Gaussians I [notes] |
[BHK] Links to an external site. Chap 3 See Refs in notes |
|
Wed 09-23-2020 |
8. Statistical Machine Learning I : Separating Mixture of Gaussians II, Expectation Maximization I [notes] |
[KM] Links to an external site. Chap 11 [B1] Links to an external site. Chap 10 |
|
Mon 09-28-2020 |
9. Expectation Maximization II (Latent Variable Models, Soft Clustering, Mixed Regression) [notes] Connections to Generative Models [notes] |
[KM] Links to an external site. Chap 9 [KM] Links to an external site. Chap 11-12 |
|
Wed 09-30-2020 |
10. Variational Inference: State Space Representations [Slides] Inference and Generative Model Training [slides] KL, JS, Wasserstein, Bregman Divergences [notes] |
[KW] Links to an external site. Chap 3, 4 See Refs in Notes |
[A2] due day [A3] out on Oct. 2 |
Mon 10-05-2020 |
11. Variational Auto Encoders I [KW] Links to an external site. Optimization II: Stochastic Gradient Descent, Fokker Planck equation [notes]
|
[KW] Links to an external site. Chap 2 See Refs in Notes |
[A2] solution
|
Wed 10-07-2020 |
12. Variational Auto Encoders II: Mixture of Gaussian Priors [Slides] Markov Chain Monte Carlo Sampling of Unknown Posterior Distributions [notes]
|
[KW] Links to an external site. Chap 2, 3
[BHK Chap 4] See Refs in Notes |
|
Mon 10-12-2020 |
13. Dynamical Systems and Non-linear Predictive Control [see JM] Linearizing Dynamics I [notes]
|
[KM] Links to an external site. Chap 21-22 [Boyd] Slides |
|
Wed 10-14-2020 |
14: Dynamical Systems and Non-linear Predictive Control II [chap] |
[JM] Links to an external site.Nonlinear Control Chap Links to an external site.
|
[A3] due on Oct.16 |
Mon 10-19-2020 |
15. Dynamical Systems and Non-linear Predictive Control III Koopman Theory, Dynamic Mode Decomposition, with Applications to Reduced Models [notes] [slides] |
|
[A3] solution on Sunday Oct 18 |
Wed 10-21-2020 |
MIDTERM in Class [Online] |
[A4] out today | |
Mon 10-26-2020 |
16. Stochastic Gaussian Processes I : Uncertainty Quantification [paper], [RWbook]
|
[RW] Chap 1-3 Reference paper |
|
Wed 10-28-2020 |
17. Stochastic Gaussian Processes II: Uncertainty Propagation, Kalman Filtering [notes][KF-Dynam-paper] |
Reference KF-Dynam paper |
|
Mon 11-02-2020 |
18. Matrix and Tensor Sketching [notes]; SketchCoreSVD Robust Sparse Recovery; Alternating Minimization[note], Connections to Compressive Sensing , L0, L1 minimization [notes2]
|
Reference paper Links to an external site.
[JK] Links to an external site. Chap 7-8 |
project topics out |
Wed 11-04-2020 |
19.Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning I : Adaptive Time Series Forecasting
|
[GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 10 See Refs in chap |
[A4] due day solution out on Nov. 6 [A5] out on Nov. 6
|
Mon 11-09-2020 |
20. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning II: Continuous Dynamical Systems
|
[GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 10 See Refs in Notes |
project topic and group decision due day |
Wed 11-11-2020 |
21. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning III: Generative Models |
[BHK] Links to an external site. Chap 5 [KW] Links to an external site. Chap 2 [GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 20 See Refs in Notes |
|
Mon 11-16-2020 |
22. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning IV Optimal Control for Unknown Dynamical Systems |
[GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 10-12 |
Part 1 of Project Due
|
Wed 11-18-2020 |
23. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning V: |
[GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 10-12 See Refs in Notes |
[A5] due on Nov. 20 Solution out on Nov. 22 |
Mon 11-23-2020 |
24. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning VI: Value Iteration |
[GBC] Links to an external site. Chap 10-12 |
|
Mon 11-30-2020 |
25. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning IV: Policy Gradients |
See Refs in Notes |
|
Wed 12-2-2020 |
26. Geometry of Deep Reinforcement Learning IV: Actor-Critic Methods |
See Refs in Notes |
|
Mon 12-07-2020 |
27. Geometry of Deep Learning IV: Inverse RL& Shape Optimization |
See Refs in Notes |
|
THUR 12-10-2020 |
Presentations (5p - 7pm) |
|
|
12-14-2020 |
FINAL REPORTS DUE |
|
Final Project Report Due |
Project FAQ
1. How long should the project report be?
Answer: See directions in the Class Project List. For full points, please address each of the evaluation questions as succinctly as possible. Note the deadline for the report is Dec 11 midnight. You will get feedback on your presentations, that should also be incorporated in your final report.
Tests
There will be one in-class midterm exam and one final project. The important deadline dates are:
- Midterm: Monday Oct 21, 2020
- Final Project Written Report, Part 1 Due: Nov 16, 2020 and Part 2 (completed) Due: Dec 14, 2020
Assignments
There will be five written homework (HW) assignments and one final project. Each HW roughly spans 2 weeks. There will be a 2-day grace beyond the due date of the HW, before solutions are released. You will be penalized 5%, each day you are late. After You are allowed to turn in your HW after solutions are released. However you will be penalized 50%, and then 5% additional day of delay. Please remember HW should be in your own words, and not copied, to demonstrate learning and understanding . The Final project report should be turned in two parts. The first part should have a clear statement of the problem you have selected to work on, the name of your partner (if doing this jointly) and the prior papers whose approach your basing your solution. Part 2 (and final) project report submission should build upon Part 1, include details of your solution, results obtained and a discussion of achievements/future work. Please also refer to the above schedule for all assignments and final project report due time.
Course Requirements and Grading
Grades will be based on these factors
- In-class attendance and participation (5%)
- HW assignments (50% and with potential to get extra credit)
5 assignments. Some assignments may have extra questions for extra points you can earn. (They will be specified in the assignment sheet each time.)
- In-class midterm exam (15%)
- First Presentation & Report (10%)
- Final Presentation & Report (20%)
Students with Disabilities. Students with disabilities may request appropriate academic accommodations from the Division of Diversity and Community Engagement, Services for Students with Disabilities, 471-6259, http://www.utexas.edu/diversity/ddce/ssd
Accommodations for Religious Holidays. By UT Austin policy, you must notify the instructor of your pending absence at least fourteen days prior to the date of observance of a religious holiday. If you must miss a class or an examination in order to observe a religious holiday, you will be given an opportunity to complete the missed work within a reasonable time before or after the absence, provided proper notification is given.
Statement on Scholastic Dishonesty. Anyone who violates the rules for the HW assignments or who cheats in in-class tests or the final exam is in danger of receiving an F for the course. Additional penalties may be levied by the Computer Science department, CSEM and the University. See http://www.cs.utexas.edu/academics/conduct/
Course Summary:
Date | Details | Due |
---|---|---|
|